• Election Update

    Following the widely praised Democratic National Convention, Hillary took a large lead in both state and national polls over Donald Trump. Yet three weeks later, her advantage has been holding steady, suggesting her edge is more than just a convention bounce. It would be unwise to become complacent, yet there is no denying this simple truth: HIllary Clinton is vastly more likely to win the presidency than Donald Trump.



    Mathematical models like Fivethirtyeight and The Upshot peg Hillary at about an 88% chance to win the election, which is a very solid lead. But—and this is the important piece—that still leaves Trump with a 12% chance of winning. Right now, our job is to move that 12% down to 0% by November 8th.


    So what lies ahead? What events, on both the local and the national level, could affect this race? For one, the debates are coming up, with the first one on September 26th, which you should definitely watch. Hillary is known for preparing intensely for debates, so she will likely have a strong performance. However, Trump is very unpredictable and could pull out a debate surprise.


    While there is not much we can do to help HIllary prepare for the debates, we can help define the aftermath. Early voting is crucial in many states, and it starts in some areas just a week or two after the first debate. It has been well established that a strong debate performance can help boost enthusiasm for early voting when coupled with a strong organization. If Hillary has a strong debate performance, calls and canvassing could have a tremendous impact on locking in the early vote.


    Yet if Trump manages to pull out an upset in the debate, volunteering could be even more important. In 2012, Mitt Romney was widely seen as having won the first debate, yet President Obama’s strong organization and volunteer efforts helped avert negative consequences. The President was still able to win early voting, while Romney's weaker campaign organization was not as effective in capitalizing on his debate performance. Even if Hillary doesn’t do as well as we hope in the debates, there is still tremendous opportunity to help her win the election.

    Hillary has a strong lead in the election, so between now and November, let’s do everything we can to turn that advantage into victory.

    Photo credit to Denise Krebs

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